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The General Theory of 雇用, 利益/興味, and Money: 事業/計画(する) Gutenberg Australia

The General Theory of 雇用, 利益/興味 and Money

By John Maynard Keynes

一時期/支部 24

CONCLUDING NOTES ON THE SOCIAL PHILOSOPHY TOWARDS WHICH THE GENERAL THEORY MIGHT LEAD

I

The 優れた faults of the 経済的な society in which we live are its 失敗 to 供給する for 十分な 雇用 and its 独断的な and inequitable 配当 of wealth and incomes. The 耐えるing of the foregoing theory on the first of these is obvious. But there are also two important 尊敬(する)・点s in which it is 関連した to the second.

Since the end of the nineteenth century 重要な 進歩 に向かって the 除去 of very 広大な/多数の/重要な 不平等s of wealth and income has been 達成するd through the 器具 of direct 課税所得税 and surtax and death 義務s特に in 広大な/多数の/重要な Britain. Many people would wish to see this 過程 carried much その上の, but they are deterred by two considerations; partly by the 恐れる of making skilful 回避s too much 価値(がある) while and also of 減らすing unduly the 動機 に向かって 危険-taking, but おもに, I think, by the belief that the growth of 資本/首都 depends upon the strength of the 動機 に向かって individual saving and that for a large 割合 of this growth we are 扶養家族 on the 貯金 of the rich out of their superfluity. Our argument does not 影響する/感情 the first of these considerations. But it may かなり 修正する our 態度 に向かって the second. For we have seen that, up to the point where 十分な 雇用 勝つ/広く一帯に広がるs, the growth of 資本/首都 depends not at all on a low propensity to 消費する but is, on the contrary, held 支援する by it; and only in 条件s of 十分な 雇用 is a low propensity to 消費する 役立つ to the growth of 資本/首都. Moreover, experience 示唆するs that in 存在するing 条件s saving by 会・原則s and through 沈むing 基金s is more than 適する, and that 対策 for the 議席数是正 of incomes in a way likely to raise the propensity to 消費する may 証明する 前向きに/確かに favourable to the growth of 資本/首都.

The 存在するing 混乱 of the public mind on the 事柄 is 井戸/弁護士席 illustrated by the very ありふれた belief that the death 義務s are 責任がある a 削減 in the 資本/首都 wealth of the country. Assuming that the 明言する/公表する 適用するs the proceeds of these 義務s to its ordinary 去っていく/社交的なs so that 税金s on incomes and 消費 are 対応して 減ずるd or 避けるd, it is, of course, true that a 財政政策 of 激しい death 義務s has the 影響 of 増加するing the community's propensity to 消費する. But inasmuch as an 増加する in the habitual propensity to 消費する will in general (i.e. except in 条件s of 十分な 雇用) serve to 増加する at the same time the 誘導 to invcst, the inference 一般的に drawn is the exact opposite of the truth.

Thus our argument leads に向かって the 結論 that in 同時代の 条件s the growth of wealth, so far from 存在 扶養家族 on the abstinence of the rich, as is 一般的に supposed, is more likely to be 妨げるd by it. One of the 長,指導者 social justifications of 広大な/多数の/重要な 不平等 of wealth is, therefore, 除去するd. I am not 説 that there are no other 推論する/理由s, 影響を受けない by our theory, 有能な of 正当化するing some 手段 of 不平等 in some circumstances. But it does 配置する/処分する/したい気持ちにさせる of the most important of the 推論する/理由s why hitherto we have thought it 慎重な to move carefully. This 特に 影響する/感情s our 態度 に向かって death 義務s: for there are 確かな justifications for 不平等 of incomes which do not 適用する 平等に to 不平等 of 相続物件s.

For my own part, I believe that there is social and psychological justification for 重要な 不平等s of incomes and wealth, but not for such large 不平等s as 存在する to-day. There are 価値のある human activities which 要求する the 動機 of money-making and the 環境 of 私的な wealth-所有権 for their 十分な fruition. Moreover, dangerous human proclivities can be canalised into comparatively 害のない channels by the 存在 of 適切な時期s for money-making and 私的な wealth, which, if they cannot be 満足させるd in this way, may find their 出口 in cruelty, the 無謀な 追跡 of personal 力/強力にする and 当局, and other forms of self-aggrandisement. It is better that a man should tyrannise over his bank balance than over his fellow-国民s; and whilst the former is いつかs 公然と非難するd as 存在 but a means to the latter, いつかs at least it is an 代案/選択肢. But it is not necessary for the stimulation of these activities and the satisfaction of these proclivities that the game should be played for such high 火刑/賭けるs as at 現在の. Much lower 火刑/賭けるs will serve the 目的 平等に 井戸/弁護士席, as soon as the players are accustomed to them. The 仕事 of transmuting human nature must not be 混乱させるd with the 仕事 of managing it. Though in the ideal 連邦/共和国 men may have been taught or 奮起させるd or bred to take no 利益/興味 in the 火刑/賭けるs, it may still be wise and 慎重な statesmanship to 許す the game to be played, 支配する to 支配するs and 制限s, so long as the 普通の/平均(する) man, or even a 重要な section of the community, is in fact 堅固に (麻薬)常用者d to the money-making passion.

II

There is, however, a second, much more 根底となる inference from our argument which has a 耐えるing on the 未来 of 不平等s of wealth; すなわち, our theory of the 率 of 利益/興味. The justification for a moderately high 率 of 利益/興味 has been 設立する hitherto in the necessity of 供給するing a 十分な 誘導 to save. But we have shown that the extent of 効果的な saving is やむを得ず 決定するd by the 規模 of 投資 and that the 規模 of 投資 is 促進するd by a low 率 of 利益/興味, 供給するd that we do not 試みる/企てる to 刺激する it in this way beyond the point which corresponds to 十分な 雇用. Thus it is to our best advantage to 減ずる the 率 of 利益/興味 to that point 比較して to the schedule of the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 at which there is 十分な 雇用.

There can be no 疑問 that this criterion will lead to a much lower 率 of 利益/興味 than has 支配するd hitherto; and, so far as one can guess at the schedules of the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 corresponding to 増加するing 量s of 資本/首都, the 率 of 利益/興味 is likely to 落ちる 刻々と, if it should be practicable to 持続する 条件s of more or いっそう少なく continuous 十分な 雇用unless, indeed, there is an 過度の change in the aggregate propensity to 消費する (含むing the 明言する/公表する).

I feel sure that the 需要・要求する for 資本/首都 is 厳密に 限られた/立憲的な in the sense that it would not be difficult to 増加する the 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 up to a point where its ごくわずかの efficiency had fallen to a very low 人物/姿/数字. This would not mean that the use of 資本/首都 器具s would cost almost nothing, but only that the return from them would have to cover little more than their exhaustion by wastage and obsolescence together with some 利ざや to cover 危険 and the 演習 of 技術 and judgment. In short, the aggregate return from 持続する goods in the course of their life would, as in the 事例/患者 of short-lived goods, just cover their 労働-costs of 生産/産物 加える an allowance for 危険 and the costs of 技術 and 監督.

Now, though this 明言する/公表する of 事件/事情/状勢s would be やめる 両立できる with some 手段 of individualism, yet it would mean the 安楽死 of the rentier, and, その結果, the 安楽死 of the cumulative oppressive 力/強力にする of the 資本主義者 to 偉業/利用する the scarcity-value of 資本/首都. 利益/興味 to-day rewards no 本物の sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of 資本/首都 can 得る 利益/興味 because 資本/首都 is 不十分な, just as the owner of land can 得る rent because land is 不十分な. But whilst there may be intrinsic 推論する/理由s for the scarcity of land, there are no intrinsic 推論する/理由s for the scarcity of 資本/首都. An intrinsic 推論する/理由 for such scarcity, in the sense of a 本物の sacrifice which could only be called 前へ/外へ by the 申し込む/申し出 of a reward in the 形態/調整 of 利益/興味, would not 存在する, in the long run, except in the event of the individual propensity to 消費する 証明するing to be of such a character that 逮捕する saving in 条件s of 十分な 雇用 comes to an end before 資本/首都 has become 十分に abundant. But even so, it will still be possible for communal saving through the 機関 of the 明言する/公表する to be 持続するd at a level which will 許す the growth of 資本/首都 up to the point where it 中止するs to be 不十分な.

I see, therefore, the rentier 面 of capitalism as a 過度期の 段階 which will disappear when it has done its work. And with the 見えなくなる of its rentier 面 much else in it besides will 苦しむ a sea-change. It will be, moreover, a 広大な/多数の/重要な advantage of the order of events which I am 支持するing, that the 安楽死 of the rentier, of the functionless 投資家, will be nothing sudden, 単に a 漸進的な but 長引かせるd continuance of what we have seen recently in 広大な/多数の/重要な Britain, and will need no 革命.

Thus we might 目的(とする) in practice (there 存在 nothing in this which is unattainable) at an 増加する in the 容積/容量 of 資本/首都 until it 中止するs to be 不十分な, so that the functionless 投資家 will no longer receive a 特別手当; and at a 計画/陰謀 of direct 課税 which 許すs the 知能 and 決意 and (n)役員/(a)執行力のある 技術 of the financier, the entrepreneur et hoc genus omne (who are certainly so fond of their (手先の)技術 that their 労働 could be 得るd much cheaper than at 現在の), to be harnessed to the service of the community on reasonable 条件 of reward.

At the same time we must recognise that only experience can show how far the ありふれた will, 具体的に表現するd in the 政策 of the 明言する/公表する, せねばならない be directed to 増加するing and 補足(する)ing the 誘導 to 投資する; and how far it is 安全な to 刺激する the 普通の/平均(する) propensity to 消費する, without foregoing our 目的(とする) of 奪うing 資本/首都 of its scarcity-value within one or two 世代s. It may turn out that the propensity to 消費する will be so easily 強化するd by the 影響s of a 落ちるing 率 of 利益/興味, that 十分な 雇用 can be reached with a 率 of accumulation little greater than at 現在の. In this event a 計画/陰謀 for the higher 課税 of large incomes and 相続物件s might be open to the 反対 that it would lead to 十分な 雇用 with a 率 of accumulation which was 減ずるd かなり below the 現在の level. I must not be supposed to 否定する the 可能性, or even the probability, of this 結果. For in such 事柄s it is 無分別な to 予報する how the 普通の/平均(する) man will 反応する to a changed 環境. If, however, it should 証明する 平易な to 安全な・保証する an approximation to 十分な 雇用 with a 率 of accumulation not much greater than at 現在の, an 優れた problem will at least have been solved. And it would remain for separate 決定/判定勝ち(する) on what 規模 and by what means it is 権利 and reasonable to call on the living 世代 to 制限する their 消費, so as to 設立する in course of time, a 明言する/公表する of 十分な 投資 for their 後継者s.

III

In some other 尊敬(する)・点s the foregoing theory is moderately 保守的な in its 関わりあい/含蓄s. For whilst it 示すs the 決定的な importance of 設立するing 確かな central 支配(する)/統制するs in 事柄s which are now left in the main to individual 率先, there are wide fields of activity which are 影響を受けない. The 明言する/公表する will have to 演習 a guiding 影響(力) on the propensity to 消費する partly through its 計画/陰謀 of 課税, partly by 直す/買収する,八百長をするing the 率 of 利益/興味, and partly, perhaps, in other ways. その上に, it seems ありそうもない that the 影響(力) of banking 政策 on the 率 of 利益/興味 will be 十分な by itself to 決定する an optimum 率 of 投資. I conceive, therefore, that a somewhat 包括的な socialisation of 投資 will 証明する the only means of 安全な・保証するing an approximation to 十分な 雇用; though this need not 除外する all manner of 妥協s and of 装置s by which public 当局 will co-operate with 私的な 率先. But beyond this no obvious 事例/患者 is made out for a system of 明言する/公表する 社会主義 which would embrace most of the 経済的な life of the community. It is not the 所有権 of the 器具s of 生産/産物 which it is important for the 明言する/公表する to assume. If the 明言する/公表する is able to 決定する the aggregate 量 of 資源s 充てるd to augmenting the 器具s and the basic 率 of reward to those who own them, it will have 遂行するd all that is necessary. Moreover, the necessary 対策 of socialisation can be introduced 徐々に and without a break in the general traditions of society.

Our 批評 of the 受託するd classical theory of 経済的なs has consisted not so much in finding 論理(学)の 欠陥s in its 分析 as in pointing out that its tacit 仮定/引き受けることs are seldom or never 満足させるd, with the result that it cannot solve the 経済的な problems of the actual world. But if our central 支配(する)/統制するs 後継する in 設立するing an aggregate 容積/容量 of 生産(高) corresponding to 十分な 雇用 as nearly as is practicable, the classical theory comes into its own again from this point onwards. If we suppose the 容積/容量 of 生産(高) to be given, i.e. to be 決定するd by 軍隊s outside the classical 計画/陰謀 of thought, then there is no 反対 to be raised against the classical 分析 of the manner in which 私的な self-利益/興味 will 決定する what in particular is produced, in what 割合s the factors of 生産/産物 will be 連合させるd to produce it, and how the value of the final 製品 will be 分配するd between them. Again, if we have dealt さもなければ with the problem of thrift, there is no 反対 to be raised against the modern classical theory as to the degree of consilience between 私的な and public advantage in 条件s of perfect and imperfect 競争 それぞれ. Thus, apart from the necessity of central 支配(する)/統制するs to bring about an 調整 between the propensity to 消費する and the 誘導 to 投資する, there is no more 推論する/理由 to socialise 経済的な life than there was before.

To put the point concretely, I see no 推論する/理由 to suppose that the 存在するing system 本気で misemploys the factors of 生産/産物 which are in use. There are, of course, errors of foresight; but these would not be 避けるd by centralising 決定/判定勝ち(する)s. When 9,000,000 men are 雇うd out of 10,000,000 willing and able to work, there is no 証拠 that the 労働 of these 9,000,000 men is misdirected. The (民事の)告訴 against the 現在の system is not that these 9,000,000 men せねばならない be 雇うd on different 仕事s, but that 仕事s should be 利用できる for the remaining 1,000,000 men. It is in 決定するing the 容積/容量, not the direction, of actual 雇用 that the 存在するing system has broken 負かす/撃墜する.

Thus I agree with Gesell that the result of filling in the gaps in the classical theory is not to 配置する/処分する/したい気持ちにさせる of the 'Manchester System', but to 示す the nature of the 環境 which the 解放する/自由な play of 経済的な 軍隊s 要求するs if it is to realise the 十分な potentialities of 生産/産物. The central 支配(する)/統制するs necessary to 確実にする 十分な 雇用 will, of course, 伴う/関わる a large 拡張 of the 伝統的な 機能(する)/行事s of 政府. その上に, the modern classical theory has itself called attention to さまざまな 条件s in which the 解放する/自由な play of 経済的な 軍隊s may need to be 抑制(する)d or guided. But there will still remain a wide field for the 演習 of 私的な 率先 and 責任/義務. Within this field the 伝統的な advantages of individualism will still 持つ/拘留する good.

Let us stop for a moment to remind ourselves what these advantages are. They are partly advantages of efficiencythe advantages of decentralisation and of the play of self-利益/興味. The advantage to efficiency of the decentralisation of 決定/判定勝ち(する)s and of individual 責任/義務 is even greater, perhaps, than the nineteenth century supposed; and the reaction against the 控訴,上告 to self-利益/興味 may have gone too far. But, above all, individualism, if it can be 粛清するd of its defects and its 乱用s, is the best 保護(する)/緊急輸入制限 of personal liberty in the sense that, compared with any other system, it 大いに 広げるs the field for the 演習 of personal choice. It is also the best 保護(する)/緊急輸入制限 of the variety of life, which 現れるs 正確に from this 延長するd field of personal choice, and the loss of which is the greatest of all the losses of the homogeneous or 全体主義者 明言する/公表する. For this variety 保存するs the traditions which 具体的に表現する the most 安全な・保証する and successful choices of former 世代s; it colours the 現在の with the diversification of its fancy; and, 存在 the handmaid of 実験 同様に as of tradition and of fancy, it is the most powerful 器具 to better the 未来.

Whilst, therefore, the enlargement of the 機能(する)/行事s of 政府, 伴う/関わるd in the 仕事 of adjusting to one another the propensitv to 消費する and the 誘導 to 投資する, would seem to a nineteenth-century publicist or to a 同時代の American financier to be a terrific encroachment on individualism, I defend it, on the contrary, both as the only practicable means of 避けるing the 破壊 of 存在するing 経済的な forms in their entirety and as the 条件 of the successful 機能(する)/行事ing of individual 率先.

For if 効果的な 需要・要求する is deficient, not only is the public スキャンダル of wasted 資源s intolerable, but the individual enterpriser who 捜し出すs to bring these 資源s into 活動/戦闘 is operating with the 半端物s 負担d against him. The game of hazard which he plays is furnished with many 無s, so that the players as a whole will lose if they have the energy and hope to 取引,協定 all the cards Hitherto the increment of the world's wealth has fallen short of the aggregate of 肯定的な individual 貯金; and the difference has been made up by the losses of those whose courage and 率先 have not been 補足(する)d by exceptional 技術 or unusual good fortune. But if 効果的な 需要・要求する is 適する, 普通の/平均(する) 技術 and 普通の/平均(する) good fortune will be enough.

The 権威主義者 明言する/公表する systems of to-day seem to solve the problem of 失業 at the expense of efficiency and of freedom. It is 確かな that the world will not much longer 許容する the 失業 which, apart from 簡潔な/要約する intervals of excitement, is associatedand, in my opinion, 必然的に associatedwith 現在の-day capitalistic individualism. But it may be possible by a 権利 分析 of the problem to cure the 病気 whilst 保存するing efficiency and freedom.

IV

I have について言及するd in passing that the new system might be more favourable to peace than the old has been. It is 価値(がある) while to repeat and 強調 that 面. War has several 原因(となる)s. 独裁者s and others such, to whom war 申し込む/申し出s, in 期待 at least, a pleasurable excitement, find it 平易な to work on the natural bellicosity of their peoples. But, over and above this, 容易にするing their 仕事 of fanning the popular 炎上, are the 経済的な 原因(となる)s of war, すなわち, the 圧力 of 全住民 and the 競争の激しい struggle for markets. It is the second factor, which probably played a predominant part in the nineteenth century, and might again, that is germane to this discussion.

I have pointed out in the 先行する 一時期/支部 that, under the system of 国内の laissez-faire and an international gold 基準 such as was 正統派の in the latter half of the nineteenth century, there was no means open to a 政府 whereby to mitigate 経済的な 苦しめる at home except through the 競争の激しい struggle for markets. For all 対策 helpful to a 明言する/公表する of chronic or intermittent under-雇用 were 支配するd out, except 対策 to 改善する the balance of 貿易(する) on income account.

Thus, whilst 経済学者s were accustomed to applaud the 勝つ/広く一帯に広がるing international system as furnishing the fruits of the international 分割 of 労働 and harmonising at the same time the 利益/興味s of different nations, there lay 隠すd a いっそう少なく benign 影響(力); and those statesmen were moved by ありふれた sense and a 訂正する 逮捕 of the true course of events, who believed that if a rich, old country were to neglect the struggle for markets its 繁栄 would droop and fail. But if nations can learn to 供給する themselves with 十分な 雇用 by their 国内の 政策 (and, we must 追加する, if they can also 達成する equilibrium in the 傾向 of their 全住民), there need be no important 経済的な 軍隊s calculated to 始める,決める the 利益/興味 of one country against that of its 隣人s. There would still be room for the international 分割 of 労働 and for international lending in appropriate 条件s. But there would no longer be a 圧力(をかける)ing 動機 why one country need 軍隊 its wares on another or 撃退する the offerings of its 隣人, not because this was necessary to enable it to 支払う/賃金 for what it wished to 購入(する), but with the 表明する 反対する of upsetting the equilibrium of 支払い(額)s so as to develop a balance of 貿易(する) in its own favour. International 貿易(する) would 中止する to be what it is, すなわち, a desperate expedient to 持続する 雇用 at home by 軍隊ing sales on foreign markets and 制限するing 購入(する)s, which, if successful, will 単に 転換 the problem of 失業 to the 隣人 which is worsted in the struggle, but a willing and unimpeded 交流 of goods and services in 条件s of 相互の advantage.

V

Is the fulfilment of these ideas a visionary hope? Have they insufficient roots in the 動機s which 治める/統治する the 進化 of political society? Are the 利益/興味s which they will 妨害する stronger and more obvious than those which they will serve?

I do not 試みる/企てる an answer in this place. It would need a 容積/容量 of a different character from this one to 示す even in 輪郭(を描く) the practical 対策 in which they might be 徐々に 着せる/賦与するd. But if the ideas are 訂正するan hypothesis on which the author himself must やむを得ず base what he 令状sit would be a mistake, I 予報する, to 論争 their potency over a period of time. At the 現在の moment people are 異常に expectant of a more 根底となる diagnosis; more 特に ready to receive it; eager to try it out, if it should be even plausible. But apart from this 同時代の mood, the ideas of 経済学者s and political philosophers, both when they are 権利 and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is 一般的に understood. Indeed the world is 支配するd by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be やめる 免除された from any 知識人 影響(力)s, are usually the slaves of some 消滅した/死んだ 経済学者. Madmen in 当局, who hear 発言する/表明するs in the 空気/公表する, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years 支援する. I am sure that the 力/強力にする of vested 利益/興味s is vastly 誇張するd compared with the 漸進的な encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, すぐに, but after a 確かな interval; for in the field of 経済的な and political philosophy there are not many who are 影響(力)d by new theories after they are twenty-five or thirty years of age, so that the ideas which civil servants and 政治家,政治屋s and even agitators 適用する to 現在の events are not likely to be the newest. But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested 利益/興味s, which are dangerous for good or evil.