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The General Theory of 雇用, 利益/興味, and Money: 事業/計画(する) Gutenberg Australia

The General Theory of 雇用, 利益/興味 and Money

By John Maynard Keynes

一時期/支部 16

SUNDRY OBSERVATIONS ON THE NATURE OF CAPITAL

I

An 行為/法令/行動する of individual saving meansso to speaka 決定/判定勝ち(する) not to have dinner to-day. But it does not necessitate a 決定/判定勝ち(する) to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to 消費する any 明示するd thing at any 明示するd date. Thus it depresses the 商売/仕事 of 準備するing to-day's dinner without 刺激するing the 商売/仕事 of making ready for some 未来 行為/法令/行動する of 消費. It is not a substitution of 未来 消費-需要・要求する for 現在の 消費-需要・要求する,it is a 逮捕する diminution of such 需要・要求する. Moreover, the 期待 of 未来 消費 is so 大部分は based on 現在の experience of 現在の 消費 that a 削減 in the latter is likely to depress the former, with the result that the 行為/法令/行動する of saving will not 単に depress the price of 消費-goods and leave the ごくわずかの efficiency of 存在するing 資本/首都 影響を受けない, but may 現実に tend to depress the latter also. In this event it may 減ずる 現在の 投資-需要・要求する 同様に as 現在の 消費-需要・要求する.

If saving consisted not 単に in 棄権するing from 現在の 消費 but in placing 同時に a 明確な/細部 order for 未来 消費, the 影響 might indeed be different. For in that 事例/患者 the 期待 of some 未来 産する/生じる from 投資 would be 改善するd, and the 資源s 解放(する)d from 準備するing for 現在の 消費 could be turned over to 準備するing for the 未来 消費. Not that they やむを得ず would be, even in this 事例/患者, on a 規模 equal to the 量 of 資源s 解放(する)d; since the 願望(する)d interval of 延期する might 要求する a method of 生産/産物 so inconveniently 'roundabout' as to have an efficiency 井戸/弁護士席 below the 現在の 率 of 利益/興味, with the result that the favourable 影響 on 雇用 of the 今後 order for 消費 would eventuate not at once but at some その後の date, so that the 即座の 影響 of the saving would still be 逆の to 雇用. In any 事例/患者, however, an individual 決定/判定勝ち(する) to save does not, in actual fact, 伴う/関わる the placing of any 明確な/細部 今後 order for 消費, but 単に the 取り消し of a 現在の order. Thus, since the 期待 of 消費 is the only raison d'黎re of 雇用, there should be nothing paradoxical in the 結論 that a 減らすd propensity to 消費する has cet. par. a depressing 影響 on 雇用.

The trouble arises, therefore, because the 行為/法令/行動する of saving 暗示するs, not a substitution for 現在の 消費 of some 明確な/細部 付加 消費 which 要求するs for its 準備 just as much 即座の 経済的な activity as would have been 要求するd by 現在の 消費 equal in value to the sum saved, but a 願望(する) for 'wealth' as such, that is for a potentiality of 消費するing an 明示していない article at an 明示していない time. The absurd, though almost 全世界の/万国共通の, idea that an 行為/法令/行動する of individual saving is just as good for 効果的な 需要・要求する as an 行為/法令/行動する of individual 消費, has been fostered by the fallacy, much more specious than the 結論 derived from it, that an 増加するd 願望(する) to 持つ/拘留する wealth, 存在 much the same thing as an 増加するd 願望(する) to 持つ/拘留する 投資s, must, by 増加するing the 需要・要求する for 投資s, 供給する a 刺激 to their 生産/産物; so that 現在の 投資 is 促進するd by individual saving to the same extent as 現在の 消費 is 減らすd.

It is of this fallacy that it is most difficult to disabuse men's minds. It comes from believing that the owner of wealth 願望(する)s a 資本/首都-資産 as such, 反して what he really 願望(する)s is its 見込みのある 産する/生じる. Now, 見込みのある 産する/生じる wholly depends on the 期待 of 未来 効果的な 需要・要求する in relation to 未来 条件s of 供給(する). If, therefore, an 行為/法令/行動する of saving does nothing to 改善する 見込みのある 産する/生じる, it does nothing to 刺激する 投資. Moreover, in order that an individual saver may 達成する his 願望(する)d goal of the 所有権 of wealth, it is not necessary that a new 資本/首都-資産 should be produced wherewith to 満足させる him. The mere 行為/法令/行動する of saving by one individual, 存在 two-味方するd as we have shown above, 軍隊s some other individual to 移転 to him some article of wealth old or new. Every 行為/法令/行動する of saving 伴う/関わるs a '軍隊d' 必然的な 移転 of wealth to him who saves, though he in his turn may を煩う the saving of others. These 移転s of wealth do not 要求する the 創造 of new wealthindeed, as we have seen, they may be 活発に inimical to it. The 創造 of new wealth wholly depends on the 見込みのある 産する/生じる of the new wealth reaching the 基準 始める,決める by the 現在の 率 of 利益/興味. The 見込みのある 産する/生じる of the ごくわずかの new 投資 is not 増加するd by the fact that someone wishes to 増加する his wealth, since the 見込みのある 産する/生じる of the ごくわずかの new 投資 depends on the 期待 of a 需要・要求する for a 明確な/細部 article at a 明確な/細部 date.

Nor do we 避ける this 結論 by arguing that what the owner of wealth 願望(する)s is not a given 見込みのある 産する/生じる but the best 利用できる 見込みのある 産する/生じる, so that an 増加するd 願望(する) to own wealth 減ずるs the 見込みのある 産する/生じる with which the 生産者s of new 投資 have to be content. For this overlooks the fact that there is always an 代案/選択肢 to the 所有権 of real 資本/首都-資産s, すなわち the 所有権 of money and 負債s; so that the 見込みのある 産する/生じる with which the 生産者s of new 投資 have to be content cannot 落ちる below the 基準 始める,決める by the 現在の 率 of 利益/興味. And the 現在の 率 of 利益/興味 depends, as we have seen, not on the strength of the 願望(する) to 持つ/拘留する wealth, but on the strengths of the 願望(する)s to 持つ/拘留する it in liquid and in illiquid forms それぞれ, coupled with the 量 of the 供給(する) of wealth in the one form 比較して to the 供給(する) of it in the other. If the reader still finds himself perplexed, let him ask himself why, the 量 of money bcing 不変の, a fresh 行為/法令/行動する of saving should 減らす the sum which it is 願望(する)d to keep in liquid form at the 存在するing 率 of 利益/興味.

確かな deeper perplexities, which may arise when we try to 調査(する) still その上の into the whys and wherefores, will be considered in the next 一時期/支部.

II

It is much より望ましい to speak of 資本/首都 as having a 産する/生じる over the course of its life in 超過 of its 初めの cost, than as 存在 生産力のある. For the only 推論する/理由 why an 資産 申し込む/申し出s a prospect of 産する/生じるing during its life services having an aggregate value greater than its 初期の 供給(する) price is because it is 不十分な; and it is kept 不十分な because of the 競争 of the 率 of 利益/興味 on money. If 資本/首都 becomes いっそう少なく 不十分な, the 超過 産する/生じる will 減らす, without its having become いっそう少なく 生産力のあるat least in the physical sense.

I sympathise, therefore, with the pre-classical doctrine that everything is produced by 労働, 補佐官d by what used to be called art and is now called technique, by natural 資源s which are 解放する/自由な or cost a rent によれば their scarcity or 豊富, and by the results of past 労働, 具体的に表現するd in 資産s, which also 命令(する) a price によれば their scarcity or 豊富. It is より望ましい to regard 労働, 含むing, of course, the personal services of the entrepreneur and his assistants, as the 単独の factor of 生産/産物, operating in a given 環境 of technique, natural 資源s, 資本/首都 器具/備品 and 効果的な 需要・要求する. This partly explains why we have been able to take the 部隊 of 労働 as the 単独の physical 部隊 which we 要求する in our 経済的な system, apart from 部隊s of money and of time.

It is true that some 非常に長い or roundabout 過程s are 肉体的に efficient. But so are some short 過程s. 非常に長い 過程s are not 肉体的に efficient because they are long. Some, probably most, 非常に長い 過程s would be 肉体的に very inefficient, for there are such things as spoiling or wasting with time. With a given 労働 軍隊 there is a 限定された 限界 to the 量 of 労働 具体的に表現するd in roundabout 過程s which can be used to advantage. Apart from other considerations, there must be a 予定 割合 between the 量 of 労働 雇うd in making machines and the 量 which will be 雇うd in using them. The ultimate 量 of value will not 増加する 無期限に/不明確に, 比較して to the 量 of 労働 雇うd, as the 過程s 可決する・採択するd become more and more roundabout, even if their physical efficiency is still 増加するing. Only if the 願望(する) to 延期する 消費 were strong enough to produce a 状況/情勢 in which 十分な 雇用 要求するd a 容積/容量 of 投資 so 広大な/多数の/重要な as to 伴う/関わる a 消極的な ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都, would a 過程 become advantageous 単に because it was 非常に長い; in which event we should 雇う 肉体的に inefficient 過程s, 供給するd they were 十分に 非常に長い for the 伸び(る) from 延期 to outweigh their inefficiency. We should in fact have a 状況/情勢 in which short 過程s would have to be kept 十分に 不十分な for their physical efficiency to outweigh the disadvantage of the 早期に 配達/演説/出産 of their 製品. A 訂正する theory, therefore, must be reversible so as to be able to cover the 緩和するs of the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 corresponding either to a 肯定的な or to a 消極的な 率 of 利益/興味; and it is, I think, only the scarcity theory 輪郭(を描く)d above which is 有能な of this.

Moreover there are all sorts of 推論する/理由s why さまざまな 肉親,親類d of services and 施設s are 不十分な and therefore expensive refatively to the 量 of 労働 伴う/関わるd. For example, smelly 過程s 命令(する) a higher reward, because people will not 請け負う them さもなければ. So do risky 過程s. But we do not 工夫する a 生産性 theory of smelly or risky 過程s as such. In short, not all 労働 is 遂行するd in 平等に agreeable attendant circumstances; and 条件s of equilibrium 要求する that articles produced in いっそう少なく agreeable attendant circumstances (characterised by smelliness, 危険 or the lapse of time) must be kept 十分に 不十分な to 命令(する) a higher price. But if the lapse of time becomes an agreeable attendant circumstance, which is a やめる possible 事例/患者 and already 持つ/拘留するs for many individuals, then, as I have said above, it is the short 過程s which must be kept 十分に 不十分な.

Given the optimum 量 of roundaboutness, we shall, of course, select the most efficient roundabout 過程s which we can find up to the 要求するd aggregate. But the optimum 量 itself should be such as to 供給する at the appropriate dates for that part of 消費者s' 需要・要求する which it is 願望(する)d to defer. In optimum 条件s, that is to say, 生産/産物 should be so organised as to produce in the most efficient manner 両立できる with 配達/演説/出産 at the dates at which 消費者s' 需要・要求する is 推定する/予想するd to become 効果的な. It is no use to produce for 配達/演説/出産 at a different date from this, even though the physical 生産(高) could be 増加するd by changing the date of 配達/演説/出産;except in so far as the prospect of a larger meal, so to speak, induces the 消費者 to 心配する or 延期する the hour of dinner. If, after 審理,公聴会 十分な particulars of the meals he can get by 直す/買収する,八百長をするing dinner at different hours, the 消費者 is 推定する/予想するd to decide in favour of 8 o'clock, it is the 商売/仕事 of the cook to 供給する the best dinner he can for service at that hour, irrespective of whether 7.30, 8 o'clock or 8.30 is the hour which would 控訴 him best if time counted for nothing, one way or the other, and his only 仕事 was to produce the 絶対 best dinner. In some 段階s of society it may be that we could get 肉体的に better dinners by dining later than we do; but it is 平等に 考えられる in other 段階s that we could get better dinners by dining earlier. Our theory must, as I have said above, be applicable to both contingencies.

If the 率 of 利益/興味 were 無, there would be an optimum interval for any given article between the 普通の/平均(する) date of input and the date of 消費, for which 労働 cost would be a 最小限;a shorter 過程 of 生産/産物 would be いっそう少なく efficient technically, whilst a longer 過程 would also be いっそう少なく efficient by 推論する/理由 of 貯蔵 costs and 悪化/低下. If, however, the 率 of 利益/興味 越えるs 無, a new element of cost is introduced which 増加するs with the length of the 過程, so that the optimum interval will be 縮めるd, and the 現在の input to 供給する for the 結局の 配達/演説/出産 of the article will have to be curtailed until the 見込みのある price has 増加するd 十分に to cover the 増加するd costa cost which will be 増加するd both by the 利益/興味 告発(する),告訴(する)/料金s and also by the 減らすd efficiency of the shorter method of 生産/産物. Whilst if the 率 of 利益/興味 落ちるs below 無 (assuming this to be technically possible), the opposite is the 事例/患者. Given the 見込みのある 消費者s' 需要・要求する, 現在の input to-day has to compete, so to speak, with the 代案/選択肢 of starting input at a later date; and, その結果, 現在の input will only be 価値(がある) while when the greater cheapness, by 推論する/理由 of greater technical efficiency or 見込みのある price changes, of producing later on rather than now, is insufficient to 相殺する the smaller return from 消極的な 利益/興味. In the 事例/患者 of the 広大な/多数の/重要な 大多数 of articles it would 伴う/関わる 広大な/多数の/重要な technical inefficiency to start up their input more than a very modest length of time ahead of their 見込みのある 消費. Thus even if the 率 of 利益/興味 is 無, there is a strict 限界 to the 割合 of 見込みのある 消費者s' 需要・要求する which it is profitable to begin 供給するing for in 前進する; and, as the 率 of 利益/興味 rises, the 割合 of the 見込みのある 消費者s' 需要・要求する for which it 支払う/賃金s to produce to-day 縮むs pari passu.

III

We have seen that 資本/首都 has to be kept 不十分な enough in the long-period to have a ごくわずかの efficiency which is at least equal to the 率 of 利益/興味 for a period equal to the life of the 資本/首都, as 決定するd by psychological and institutional 条件s. What would this 伴う/関わる for a society which finds itself so 井戸/弁護士席 equipped with 資本/首都 that its ごくわずかの efficiency is 無 and would be 消極的な with any 付加 投資; yet 所有するing a 通貨の system, such that money will 'keep' and 伴う/関わるs ごくわずかの costs of 貯蔵 and 安全な 保護/拘留, with the result that in practice 利益/興味 cannot be 消極的な; and, in 条件s of 十分な 雇用, 性質の/したい気がして to save?

If, in such circumstances, we start from a position of 十分な 雇用, entrepreneurs will やむを得ず make losses if they continue to 申し込む/申し出 雇用 on a 規模 which will utilise the whole of the 存在するing 在庫/株 of 資本/首都. Hence the 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 and the level of 雇用 will have to 縮む until the community becomes so 貧窮化した that the aggregate of saving has become 無, the 肯定的な saving of some individuals or groups 存在 相殺する by the 消極的な saving of others. Thus for a society such as we have supposed, the position of equilibrium, under 条件s of laissez-faire, will be one in which 雇用 is low enough and the 基準 of life 十分に 哀れな to bring 貯金 to 無. More probably there will be a cyclical movement 一連の会議、交渉/完成する this equilibrium position. For if there is still room for 不確定 about the 未来, the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 will occasionally rise above 無 主要な to a 'にわか景気', and in the 後継するing '低迷' the 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 may 落ちる for a time below the level which will 産する/生じる a ごくわずかの efficiency of 無 in the long run. Assuming 訂正する foresight, the equilibrium 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 which will have a ごくわずかの efficiency of 正確に 無 will, of course, be a smaller 在庫/株 than would correspond to 十分な 雇用 of the 利用できる 労働; for it will be the 器具/備品 which corresponds to that 割合 of 失業 which 確実にするs 無 saving.

The only 代案/選択肢 position of equilibrium would be given by a 状況/情勢 in which a 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 十分に 広大な/多数の/重要な to have a ごくわずかの efficiency of 無 also 代表するs an 量 of wealth 十分に 広大な/多数の/重要な to satiate to the 十分な the aggregate 願望(する) on the part of the public to make 準備/条項 for the 未来, even with 十分な 雇用, in circumstances where no 特別手当 is obtainable in the form of 利益/興味. It would, however, be an ありそうもない coincidence that the propensity to save in 条件s of 十分な 雇用 should become 満足させるd just at the point where the 在庫/株 of 資本/首都 reaches the level where its ごくわずかの efficiency is 無. If, therefore, this more favourable 可能性 comes to the 救助(する), it will probably 施行される, not just at the point where the 率 of 利益/興味 is 消えるing, but at some previous point during the 漸進的な 拒絶する/低下する of the 率 of 利益/興味.

We have assumed so far an institutional factor which 妨げるs the 率 of 利益/興味 from 存在 消極的な, in the 形態/調整 of money which has ごくわずかの carrying costs. In fact, however, institutional and psychological factors are 現在の which 始める,決める a 限界 much above 無 to the practicable 拒絶する/低下する in the 率 of 利益/興味. In particular the costs of bringing borrowers and 貸す人s together and 不確定 as to the 未来 of the 率 of 利益/興味, which we have 診察するd above, 始める,決める a lower 限界, which in 現在の circumstances may perhaps be as high as 2 or 2ス per cent on long 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語. If this should 証明する 訂正する, the ぎこちない 可能性s of an 増加するing 在庫/株 of wealth, in 条件s where the 率 of 利益/興味 can 落ちる no その上の under laissez-faire, may soon be realised in actual experience Moreover if the 最小限 level to which it is practicable to bring the 率 of 利益/興味 is appreciably above 無, there is いっそう少なく 見込み of the aggregate 願望(する) to 蓄積する wealth 存在 satiated before the 率 of 利益/興味 has reached its 最小限 level.

The 戦後の experiences of 広大な/多数の/重要な Britain and the 部隊d 明言する/公表するs are, indeed, actual examples of how an accumulation of wealth, so large that its ごくわずかの efficiency has fallen more 速く than the 率 of 利益/興味 can 落ちる in the 直面する of the 勝つ/広く一帯に広がるing institutional and psychological factors, can 干渉する, in 条件s おもに of laissez-faire, with a reasonable level of 雇用 and with the 基準 of life which the technical 条件s of 生産/産物 are 有能な of furnishing.

It follows that of two equal communities, having the same technique but different 在庫/株s of 資本/首都, the community with the smaller 在庫/株s of 資本/首都 may be able for the time 存在 to enjoy a higher 基準 of life than the community with the larger 在庫/株; though when the poorer community has caught up the richas, 推定では, it 結局 willthen both alike will 苦しむ the 運命/宿命 of Midas. This 乱すing 結論 depends, of course, on the 仮定/引き受けること that the propensity to 消費する and the 率 of 投資 are not deliberately controlled in the social 利益/興味 but are おもに left to the 影響(力)s of laissez-faire.

Iffor whatever 推論する/理由the 率 of 利益/興味 cannot 落ちる as 急速な/放蕩な as the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 would 落ちる with a 率 of accumulation corresponding to what the community would choose to save at a 率 of 利益/興味 equal to the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 in 条件s of 十分な 雇用, then even a 転換 of the 願望(する) to 持つ/拘留する wealth に向かって 資産s, which will in fact 産する/生じる no 経済的な fruits whatever, will 増加する 経済的な 井戸/弁護士席-存在. In so far as millionaires find their satisfaction in building mighty mansions to 含む/封じ込める their 団体/死体s when alive and pyramids to 避難所 them after death, or, repenting of their sins, 築く cathedrals and endow 修道院s or foreign 使節団s, the day when 豊富 of 資本/首都 will 干渉する with 豊富 of 生産(高) may be 延期するd. 'To dig 穴を開けるs in the ground', paid for out of 貯金, will 増加する, not only 雇用, but the real 国家の (株主への)配当 of useful goods and services. It is not reasonable, however, that a sensible community should be content to remain 扶養家族 on such fortuitous and often wasteful mitigations when once we understand the 影響(力)s upon which 効果的な 需要・要求する depends.

IV

Let us assume that steps are taken to 確実にする that the 率 of 利益/興味 is 一貫した with the 率 of 投資 which corresponds to 十分な 雇用. Let us assume, その上の, that 明言する/公表する 活動/戦闘 enters in as a balancing factor to 供給する that the growth of 資本/首都 器具/備品 shall be such as to approach saturation-point at a 率 which does not put a disproportionate 重荷(を負わせる) on the 基準 of life of the 現在の 世代.

On such 仮定/引き受けることs I should guess that a 適切に run community equipped with modern technical 資源s, of which the 全住民 is not 増加するing rapidJy, せねばならない be able to bring 負かす/撃墜する the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 in equilibrium だいたい to 無 within a 選び出す/独身 世代; so that we should 達成する the 条件s of a quasi-静止している community where change and 進歩 would result only from changes in technique, taste, 全住民 and 会・原則s, with the 製品s of 資本/首都 selling at a price 割合d to the 労働, etc., 具体的に表現するd in them on just the same 原則s as 治める/統治する the prices of 消費-goods into which 資本/首都-告発(する),告訴(する)/料金s enter in an insignificant degree.

If I am 権利 in supposing it to be comparatively 平易な to make 資本/首都-goods so abundant that the ごくわずかの efficiency of 資本/首都 is 無, this may be the most sensible way of 徐々に getting rid of many of the objectionable features of capitalism. For a little reflection will show what enormous social changes would result from a 漸進的な 見えなくなる of a 率 of return on 蓄積するd wealth. A man would still be 解放する/自由な to 蓄積する his earned income with a 見解(をとる) to spending it at a later date. But his accumulation would not grow. He would 簡単に be in the position of ローマ法王's father, who, when he retired from 商売/仕事, carried a chest of guineas with him to his 郊外住宅 at Twickenham and met his 世帯 expenses from it as 要求するd.

Though the rentier would disappear, there would still be room, にもかかわらず, for 企業 and 技術 in the estimation of 見込みのある 産する/生じるs about which opinions could 異なる. For the above relates まず第一に/本来 to the pure 率 of 利益/興味 apart from any allowance for 危険 and the like, and not to the 甚だしい/12ダース 産する/生じる of 資産s 含むing the return in 尊敬(する)・点 of 危険. Thus unless the pure 率 of 利益/興味 were to be held at a 消極的な 人物/姿/数字, there would still be a 肯定的な 産する/生じる to 技術d 投資 in individual 資産s having a doubtful 見込みのある 産する/生じる. 供給するd there was some measurable 不本意 to 請け負う 危険, there would also be a 肯定的な 逮捕する 産する/生じる from the aggregate of such 資産s over a period of time. But it is not ありそうもない that, in such circumstances, the 切望 to 得る a 産する/生じる from doubtful 投資s might be such that they would show in the aggregate a 消極的な 逮捕する 産する/生じる.