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| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| 消費者's 持続する 商品／必需品s |
8,664 |
9,316 |
8,887 |
9,175 |
10,058 |
7,892 |
5,885 |
4,022 |
3,737 |
The above 人物／姿／数字 for 1929 含むs 3,400 million dollars for モーター-cars,
whilst the 価値低下 in 尊敬（する）・点 of the same item for that year is 概算の
at 2,500 million dollars.
(2) 居住の Construction
This is an important and 高度に fluctuating item which should undoubtedly
be 含むd in 投資, and not in 消費 支出, since houses
are usually regarded as 購入（する）d out of 貯金 and not out of income, and are often owned
by others than the occupiers. In the 公式発表 from which these 人物／姿／数字s
are taken Mr Kuznets gives no 見積（る） for the 年次の 率 of 価値低下,
etc. More recently, however, his 同僚, Mr Solomon Fabricant, has published
such 見積（る）s, which I have used in the に引き続いて （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する:
| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| 居住の construction |
3,050 |
2,965 |
2,856 |
3,095 |
2,127 |
1,222 |
900 |
311 |
276 |
| 価値低下* | 1,554 | 1,676 | 1,754 | 1,842 | 1,911 | 1,901 | 1,698 | 1,460 | 1,567 |
| 逮捕する 投資 | 1,496 | 1,289 | 1,102 | 1,253 | 216 | -679 | -798 | -1,149 | -1,291 |
* These 人物／姿／数字s are calculated ーに関して／ーの点でs of 現在の (reproduction) costs.
Mr Fabricant has also 供給するd 見積（る）s ーに関して／ーの点でs of 初めの cost, which
for the years 事前の to 1932 are かなり lower.
(3) 商売／仕事 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 資本／首都
Mr Kuznets here distinguishes 支出 on new 生産者s' 持続する goods and 商売／仕事 construction from the 逮捕する change in '商売／仕事 在庫s,' i.e. in working and liquid 資本／首都; and we shall, therefore, を取り引きする the latter under a separate 長，率いるing.
The 量 of the deduction to 得る 逮捕する 投資 in 尊敬（する）・点 of parts, 修理s and servicing, and 修理s and 維持／整備 of 商売／仕事 construction as 際立った from 価値低下 and depletion, which is not made good, depends, of course, on whether the former have been 含むd in 甚だしい／１２ダース 投資. Mr Kuznets gives a 部分的な／不平等な 見積（る） for the former but the 人物／姿／数字s given below 除外する these items both from 甚だしい／１２ダース and from 逮捕する 投資. But whilst the result of deducting both the 修理s item and the 価値低下 item probably corresponds 公正に／かなり closely to my 逮捕する 投資, the two deductions taken 分かれて do not closely correspond to my deductions for 使用者 cost and 補足の cost; so that it is not possible to calculate from Mr Kuznets' data a 人物／姿／数字 corresponding to my (甚だしい／１２ダース) 投資.
The に引き続いて （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する gives in the first line 'the 形式 of 甚だしい／１２ダース
資本／首都 運命にあるd for 商売／仕事 use, 排除的 of parts, 修理s and servicing,
and 修理s and 維持／整備 of 商売／仕事 construction, and 除外するing changes
in 商売／仕事 在庫s'; and in the second line the 概算の '価値低下 and depletion' on
the same items:
| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| 甚だしい／１２ダース 商売／仕事 資本／首都 形式
(as above) |
9,070 |
9,815 |
9,555 |
10,019 |
11,396 |
9,336 |
5,933 |
3,205 |
2,894 |
| 価値低下 and depletion* |
5,685 |
6,269 |
6,312 |
6,447 |
7,039 |
6,712 |
6,154 |
5,092 |
4,971 |
| 逮捕する 投資 | 3,385 | 3,546 | 3,243 | 3,572 | 4,357 | 2,624 | -221 | -1,887 | -2,077 |
* These 人物／姿／数字s are not taken from Mr Kuznets' 覚え書き, hut from Mr
Fabricant's later and 改訂するd 見積（る）s. As before they are ーに関して／ーの点でs of
現在の (交替／補充) cost. ーに関して／ーの点でs of 初めの cost they are appreciably
lower 事前の to 1931 and higher subsequently.
(4) 商売／仕事 在庫s
For the 財政上の 伸び（る）s or losses arising out of this item there appear
to be 公正に／かなり 適する 統計（学） in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, though not in this
country. Mr Kuznets' 人物／姿／数字s are as follows:
| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| 逮捕する 伸び（る） or loss in 商売／仕事 在庫s |
916 |
2,664 |
-176 |
511 |
1,800 |
100 |
-500 |
-2,250 |
-2,250 |
This （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する covers not only 製造業者s' 在庫／株s but also 在庫／株s of
農業者s, 地雷s, 仲買人s, 政府 機関s, etc. From 1929 onwards the
人物／姿／数字s given in Mr Kuznets' memorandum of 1934 証明するd to 要求する 是正.
Those given above are 一時的に and approximate 見積（る）s, 未解決の the
出版（物） of 改訂するd 人物／姿／数字s by the 国家の Bureau.
(5) Public Construction and Borrowing
The 関連した 人物／姿／数字 in this 状況 is not so much the 甚だしい／１２ダース (or 逮捕する) 支出 on construction, as the 量 of 支出 met out of a 逮捕する 増加する in borrowing. That is to say in the 事例／患者 of public 当局 and the like, their 逮捕する 投資 may be best regarded as 存在 手段d by the 逮捕する 増加する in their borrowing. In so far as their 支出s are met by compulsory 移転 from the 現在の income of the public, they have no correlative in 私的な saving; whilst public saving, if we were to find a 満足な 鮮明度／定義 for this 概念, would be 支配する to やめる different psychological 影響（力）s from 私的な saving. I have touched on the problem in my General Theory, footnote. I 提案する, therefore, to 挿入する in place of the 人物／姿／数字s of public construction the '貸付金 支出' of public 団体／死体s.
Mr Kuznets has very kindly 供給（する）d me with 人物／姿／数字s for the 逮捕する changes
in the 量 of public 負債 (連邦の, 明言する／公表する and 地元の) 優れた in
the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, which, except for minor changes in the 政府's
cash balances, 代表する the 量 of public 支出 not covered by
税金s and other 歳入s. This is given below in 平行の with his 見積（る）s of the 量 of construction
by public 当局. The 利益／興味ing result 現れるs that up to 1928 there
was a 逮捕する 削減 in the public 負債 in spite of a large 支出
on public construction, and that even up to 1931 some part of public construction
was met out of 歳入. The 超過 of borrowing over construction in 1932
and 1933 代表するs, of course, さまざまな 対策 of public 救済.
| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| Public construction |
2,717 |
2,612 |
3,045 |
3,023 |
2,776 |
3,300 |
2,906 |
2,097 |
1,659 |
| 逮捕する change in 優れた public 負債** |
-43 |
-280 |
-244 |
-50 |
+441 |
+1,712 |
+2,822 |
+2,565 |
+2,796 |
* See Mr Kuznets' 公式発表, （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する II, line 22, brought up to date on the basis of more 最近の data.
** See col. 9 of the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する given in the 虫垂 below.
(6) Foreign 投資
Finally, we have the 逮捕する change in （人命などを）奪う，主張するs countries, 概算の by Mr
Kuznets as follows:
| (Millions of dollars.) | ||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 |
| 428 | 44 | 606 | 957 | 312 | 371 | 326 | 40 | 293 |
(7) Aggregate 逮捕する 投資
We are now in a position to 連合させる the above items into a 選び出す／独身 aggregate.
This total is not やめる 包括的な, since it 除外するs construction by
半分-public 機関s, and a small 量 unallocable construction. But Mr Kuznets is of the opinion that
both omissions are やめる minor in character and could not much 影響する／感情 the
movements of 逮捕する 投資 in the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する which now follows.
| (Millions of dollars.) | |||||||||
| 1925 | 1926 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | |
| 居住の construction |
1,496 |
1,289 |
1,102 |
1,253 |
216 |
-679 |
-798 |
-1,149 |
-1,291 |
| 商売／仕事 直す／買収する，八百長をするd 資本／首都 |
3,385 |
3,546 |
3,243 |
3,572 |
4,357 |
2,624 |
-221 |
-1,887 |
-2,077 |
| 商売／仕事 在庫s |
916 |
2,664 |
-176 |
511 |
1,800 |
100 |
-500 |
-2,250 |
-2,250 |
| 逮捕する 貸付金 支出s by public 当局 |
-43 |
-280 |
-244 |
-10 |
441 |
1,712 |
2,822 |
2,565 |
2,796 |
| Foreign 投資 |
428 |
44 |
606 |
957 |
312 |
371 |
326 |
40 |
293 |
| Aggregate 逮捕する 投資 |
6,182 |
7,263 |
4,531 |
6,283 |
7,126 |
4,128 |
1,629 |
-2,681 |
-2,529 |
It is evident that this （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する is of first-class importance for the 解釈／通訳 of 商売／仕事 fluctuations in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs. In 事柄s of 詳細（に述べる） the に引き続いて points stand out:
(a) The arrears of 居住の construction at the end of 1933 must have been enormous. For there had been no 逮捕する 投資 in this field since 1925. This does not mean, of course, that the actual 明言する／公表する of 住宅 was so bad as this. Some 甚だしい／１２ダース 投資 in 住宅 continued throughout, and the 漸進的な 悪化／低下 in the 明言する／公表する of accommodation, through obsolescence and decay not made good, does not impair forthwith to an equal extent the actual accommodation 利用できる for the time 存在.
(b) The part played by fluctuations in 商売／仕事 在庫s is very 示すd, 特に in accentuating the 不景気 at the 底（に届く） of the 低迷. The 増加する in 在庫s in 1929 was probably for the most part designed to 会合，会う 需要・要求する which did not fully materialise; whilst the small その上の 増加する in 1930 代表するd accumulations of unsold 在庫／株s. In 1932 and 1933, 製造業者s met 現在の 需要・要求する to an 驚くべき／特命の／臨時の extent out of 在庫／株s, so that 効果的な 需要・要求する fell 大部分は behind actual 消費. But this, fortunately, is a 明言する／公表する of 事件／事情／状勢s which could not continue 無期限に／不明確に. A その上の depletion of 在庫／株s on this 規模 could not かもしれない take place, since the 在庫／株s were no longer there. A level of 商売／仕事 在庫s so low as that which 存在するd in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs at the end of 1933 was an almost 確かな 先触れ（する） of some 手段 of 回復. In general an aggregate of 逮捕する 投資 which is based on an 増加する in 商売／仕事 在庫s beyond normal is 明確に 不安定な; and it is 平易な to see in retrospect that a large growth of 在庫s in 1929, coupled with a 拒絶する／低下する in 居住の construction, was ominous. The 人物／姿／数字s for 1934, 1935, and 1936 will be most 利益／興味ing when we have them. One would 推定する／予想する that the 回復 of the two former years has been based on a return of 在庫s to normal and on public 貸付金 支出, but that by 1936 持続する 投資 was beginning to 取って代わる 在庫s in making up the total. It is on the continued steadiness of the first two items of the above （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する at 人物／姿／数字s not いっそう少なく than those of 1925 to 1928 that the 維持／整備 of 繁栄 must depend; and it is for this 推論する／理由 that a low long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 率 of 利益／興味 is so vitally important.
(c) The manner in which the changes in public 貸付金 支出 （機の）カム in to 穏健な the fluctuations, which would have occurred さもなければ, is very 明らかな. The manner in which from 1931 連邦の borrowing took the place of 明言する／公表する and 地元の borrowing, as shown in the 虫垂 below, is striking. From 30 June 1924, to 30 June 1930, 連邦の 貸付金s 優れた fell from 21 to 15 billions, whilst in the same period 明言する／公表する and 地元の 貸付金s rose from 10 to 16 billions, the total remaining 不変の; 反して from 30 June 1930 to 30 June 1935, 連邦の 貸付金s rose from 15 to 26 billions and the others from 16 only to 17 billions. The 虫垂, which gives the 人物／姿／数字s of public borrowing up to 30 June 1935, shows¾contrary, perhaps, to the general impression¾that public borrowing was at its 高さ in 1931, and that in 1934-35 it was but little more than in 1929-30.
(d) When 類似の 人物／姿／数字s of income are 利用できる, we shall be able to make some computations as to the value of the Multiplier in the 条件s of the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, though there are many 統計に基づく difficulties still to 打ち勝つ. If, however, as a very 天然のまま, 予選 実験（する） we take the Dept. of 商業 見積（る）s of income (uncorrected for price changes), we find that during the large movements of the years from 1929 to 1932 the changes in money-incomes were from three to five times the changes in 逮捕する 投資 shown above. In 1933 incomes and 投資 both 増加するd わずかに, but the movements were too 狭くする to 許す the 割合 of the one to the other to be calculated within a reasonable 利ざや of error.
J. M. KEYNES
A 公式文書，認める to 虫垂 2
TOTAL AND NET OUTSTANDING ISSUES OF PUBLIC DEBT
| (Millions of dollars.) | ||||||||
| Total 優れた 問題／発行するs | 逮捕する 優れた 問題／発行するs | |||||||
|
Date
(1) |
連邦の (2) |
明言する／公表する, 郡, city, etc. (3) |
連合させるd (4) |
連邦の (5) |
明言する／公表する, 郡, city, etc. (6) |
連合させるd (7) |
逮捕する change (8) |
普通の／平均（する） for calendar year
(9) |
| 1924 | 20,982 | 11,633 | 32,615 | 20,627 | 9,921 | 30,548 | - | - |
| 1925 | 20,211 | 12,830 | 33,041 | 19,737 | 10,975 | 30,712 | +164 | -43 |
| 1926 | 19,384 | 13,664 | 33,048 | 18,790 | 11,672 | 30,462 | -250 | -280 |
| 1927 | 18,251 | 14,735 | 32,986 | 17,542 | 12,610 | 30,152 | -310 | -244 |
| 1928 | 17,318 | 15,699 | 33,017 | 16,522 | 13,452 | 29,974 | -178 | -10 |
| 1929 | 16,639 | 16,760 | 33,399 | 15,773 | 14,358 | 30,131 | +157 | +441 |
| 1930 | 15,922 | 17,985 | 33,907 | 14,969 | 15,887 | 30,856 | +725 | +1,712 |
| 1931 | 16,520 | 19,188 | 35,708 | 16,098 | 17,457 | 33,555 | +2,699 | +2,822 |
| 1932 | 19,161 | 19,635 | 35,796 | 18,673 | 17,828 | 36,501 | +2,946 | +2,565 |
| 1933 | 22,158 | 19,107 | 41,265 | 21,613 | 17,072 | 36,685 | +2,184 | +2,796 |
| 1934 | 26,480 | 18,942 | 45,422 | 25,323 | 16,771 | 42,094 | +3,409 | +2,173 |
| 1935 | 27,645 | 19,277 | 46,922 | 26,137 | 16,895 | 43,032 | +938 | - |
(Source: 報告（する）／憶測 of the 財務長官 for year ended 30 June 1935, p. 424.)
Total 優れた 問題／発行するs 除外する a small 容積／容量 of 円熟したd and 非，不，無-利益／興味 耐えるing 義務s (see ibid., p. 379).
逮捕する 優れた 問題／発行するs are equal to total 優れた 問題／発行するs いっそう少なく those held in U.S. 政府 信用 基金s, or owned by U.S. 政府 or by 政治の 機関s and held in 沈むing 基金s.
The （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する above does not 含む the 次第で変わる／派遣部隊 負債 of the 連邦の
政府, i.e. 義務s 保証（人）d by the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs. These, 構成するing
大部分は 負債 問題／発行するs of the 連邦の Farm Mortgage 会社／団体, Home Owners
貸付金 会社／団体 and the 再建 財政／金融 会社／団体, were as follows:
| Date | Millions of dollars |
| 30 June 1934 | 691 |
| 31 December 1934 | 3,079 |
| 30 June 1935 | 4,151 |
| 31 December 1935 | 4,525 |
(See Cost of 政府 in the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, by the 国家の 産業の 会議／協議会 Board, pub. no. 223, New York, 1936, （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する 26, p. 68.)